CARY, NC – September 9, 2009 – Local Market Monitor, the premier real estate forecasting solution, today released its latest Home Price Forecast, covering well over 300 US local markets. The forecast, which predicts local market behavior over the next 12 months, identifies markets where home prices will continue to drop as well as stable markets with opportunities for growth.
According to the forecast, among the largest US markets—identified as those with populations greater than 600,000—the 10 markets with the best expected performance in home price are:
Baton Rouge, LA
Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
Columbia, SC
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
Pittsburgh, PA
San Antonio, TX
Syracuse, NY
These top markets, where home values are expected to remain level, are among those markets that did not have a big housing boom and have had relatively small job losses over the past year. Home prices in these areas are generally below the US average and reflect where the recession has so far had a relatively mild impact. Dallas, San Antonio and Omaha have all experienced a 1.6 percent job loss over the past year, and jobs have actually increased in Baton Rouge.
"While home building activity nationally is down 35 percent from last year, some of our top markets are doing relatively better,” said Ingo Winzer, president of Local Market Monitor. “Building permits were off only 20 percent in San Antonio and Omaha, and they were up 10 percent in Buffalo."
The 10 largest markets with the worst expected performance in home price are:
Fresno, CA
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA
Bakersfield, CA
Stockton, CA
Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL and Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL
These markets, which are expected to have the largest declines in home values over the next year, are also among those that previously had the biggest price booms. This was attributed in large part to speculative buying, including the repercussions of inflated housing construction on the local job market and investor portfolios.
"Right now, a good market is still one where home prices aren't going down,” said Ingo Winzer. “However, this will change as the recession eases. Next year we'll see good price increases in many markets."
Local Market Monitor also recently released its latest National Economic Outlook, which comments on the overall predicted behavior of the US economy and national housing industry. According to the summary:
- Investors can expect to see an average 5 percent drop in home prices nationally over the next year, including double-digit decreases in large markets like Phoenix, Miami and Las Vegas.
- Delinquency rates are 9 percent on mortgages and 8 percent on commercial real estate loans, a percentage expected to climb rapidly.
- Healthcare is the only sector of the economy that’s currently growing, where 300,000 jobs have been added.
(www.LocalMarketMonitor.com)